BY: Gerry Cantlon, Howlings
HARTFORD, CT – The question on the minds of the entire hockey world, considering its current predicament, is when will they be returning to play the 2020-21 season?
Things are definitely different for the NHL and AHL. They are on two completely different business models, but at the same time are joined at the hip in almost every way.
The approach to Return-Top-Play contains major different dynamics in the present environment. Remember though, at the end of the day, the NHL always comes first.
An NHL source indicates that NHL training camps are likely to begin on January 1st with a 48-56 game regular season commencing on February 1st.
Another source believes that the NHL might begin at some point in January with a full 82 game schedule.
Perhaps the most important factor in determining the how-and-when the NHL resumes play, will be TV revenue. The NHL broadcasting deals in both the U.S. and Canada enter the final year of their current contracts.
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The formation of an NHL all Canadian division is all, but a certainty.
“It will save lots of money as far as business expenses in airlines and hotels. They would be paid out in Canadian dollars. They will have the Canadian Division and also create an Eastern, Central, and Western divisions. The new divisions will limit travel. I think it creates rivalries and the schedule will be, shall we say, compacted, condensed and there will be no bubbles. The players are totally opposed to that idea. The Stanley Cup format was a one-off, that’s why the geographic realignment will reduce travel, and hotel stays which will make better sense to operate in as best they can, given the pandemic restrictions, Having fans in the building is important to the NHL, but likely at the NHL-level we’ll likely see a graduated admittance based on local public health guidelines,” The source said.
The AHL will likely follow the NHL’s lead but unlike the NHL, they MUST have fans in the building. The AHL needs ticket sales to generate the revenue they need to exist since they don’t have the national TV deal or super large sponsorships that the NHL has.
Whether or not the AHL will create a Canadian division seems to be fait accompli if they go ahead.
“That’s likely to happen, but to be honest, teams are reluctant to discuss the AHL right now. That’s because it’s a giant issue because so many NHL teams own their AHL teams (20 of 32). Final decisions or places they will play, nothing has been decided,” another source with knowledge of what is being discussed said.
Obviously, the Covid pandemic and the resulting closed border between the US and Canada are fueling all of these issues. The fact that the Quebec province is a “Red Zone” territory, particularly Montreal, which means the NHL’s Montreal Canadiens and AHL’s Laval Rocket, would presently be unable to participate and that doesn’t allow for either league to make a final call.
The AHL is weighing several options.
One option is for Calgary, Edmonton, and Vancouver would move their AHL operations for a year to perhaps Calgary’s Winsports Arena, the site of the 1988 Olympics, which has been renovated over the years.
Rexall Place in Edmonton could be a possibility as they did for the 2004-05 lockout when they had the Edmonton Roadrunners, or they could use a smaller venue, such as Sherwood Park or Spruce Grove.
In Vancouver, a choice might be the old AHL city, Abbotsford, which is roughly 45 minutes from downtown. They could work out a lease deal. They could also look into reusing the Canucks old arena, The PNC Coliseum. They’re all possible options.
However late last week, the BC Health Director maintained his position against allowing spectators at indoor events making Vancouver’s options more difficult.
Another idea being floated around of relocating teams to the Ontario province to reduce travel costs with just the Manitoba Moose being the only team to fly to and from.
There is some hope that perhaps there could be a grant or loan given from the league or arranging some sort of provincial governmental “stipends” under emergency declarations.
Fans are required to maintain the league’s viability and in the US, with the AHL covering 18 states and three provinces in Canada, and all with varying different COVID requirements, all issues they must wrestle with.
In Hartford, during a Phase 3 status, a 50% capacity would be allowable at the XL Center, but in Pennsylvania, they are allowing only 10% capacity, so Lehigh Valley, Wilkes Barre/Scranton, and Hershey, all well-attended teams, would only be allowed to have approximately 1,000 fans in the house. That’s just not financially feasible.
The other scenario under consideration is allowing NHL teams to carry expanded rosters, and keep players in-house. They would scrimmage at their own practice facilities near the AHL team’s location. For example, for the Hartford Wolf Pack, perhaps they’d be playing in Cromwell. That would, in-effect shut the AHL down for 2020-21.
The problems are complex and extraordinarily difficult to work through.
The ECHL, which announced a starting date of December 11th with ten teams playing with the rest of the league on a delayed start date of January 15th with play continuing until June 6th.
“I have no idea what the hell they’re doing. It’s so unworkable on so many levels, I don’t why they even announced it before the NHL or AHL have announced (their) plans,” remarked the second source.
Player payroll will be an issue going forward.
“The AHL players would be paid on a pro-rated basis, depending on the number of games they play, and I don’t see a full schedule for next year,” said the first source. “The NHL is a whole other subject that will have to be sorted out at the highest levels, and again, it all depends on which scheduling format is decided upon. I hear they want an 82 game schedule, but will conditions permit it? Nobody knows.”
