VERSUS
It’s been five years since the Rangers AHL affiliate was the team to beat in the Atlantic Division. But, starting tonight, the Hartford Wolf Pack take the XL Center ice as the number one seed for the first time since the 2003-2004 season against the fourth seeded Worcester Sharks. Hartford is making its 12th consecutive postseason appearance – and has opened at home for all 12 – but has been eliminated in the first round three of the past four years.
Over the course of the season, the Pack (46-27-3-4) have had their struggles with San Jose’s AHL affiliate. The Pack did manage a 4-3-0-1 head-to-head record against their Massachusetts neighbors, and have won four of the last five meetings after dropping their first three meetings, but enter this series red hot with a 19-4-1-1 record over the final 25 games of the season.
But as it is in any hockey series, this one is going to boil down to who’s offense can outplay the opposition’s defense, who gets the better of the play between the pipes and which team makes fewer costly mistakes.
One other issue is who’s on the ice for each team. For the Wolf Pack, the story is really about who’s healthy and who’s not. The representatives from Connecticut’s capitol have lost some key talent to injury throughout the season. It started just nine games into the season when forward Dane Byers was lost for the season when he tore his ACL. Byers has been the heart and soul of this team in his four years in Hartford. Had he been healthy, it's very likely he would have been named the team's captain. Byers development has been steady. The 23-year old left wing was even given a one game call-up to New York for a game with the Rangers last season and while Byers is listed on the playoff roster making him eligible to play, it’s highly unlikely that he will be anything more than a spectator in this series.
Of far more immediate concern is the health of the team’s biggest offensive threat, P.A. Parenteau. Awarded the team’s Most Valuable Player during the final game of the regular season, Parenteau suffered a concussion in the March 27th game against Albany and though he played two games after, was clearly not himself. He and the team decided to shut him down for the rest of the regular season. To date, the native of Hull, Quebec has not been symptom free for the required 24 hours to consider reexamination and back into the lineup, so he will not play until the team's protocol for these things are followed.
With Parenteau out of the lineup, the question for Hartford becomes, who is going to carry the offensive burden against Worcester (42-35-1-2)?
Parenteau has tallied four goals and helped out on another eight (4-8-12) over the eight games the teams have dueled this season. If Parenteau is sidelined for this entire series, there’s no other way to say it, the team is in a lot of trouble offensively unless someone picks up the slack.
Sidelined for the time being is Tommy Pyatt. The Pyatt family suffered a terrible loss when the 27-year-old fiancé of his older brother Taylor, who plays for the Vancouver Canucks, was killed and four others injured in a car crash in Jamaica on April 3rd. Pyatt was granted permission to take his time and come back to the team when he felt he could. The voice of the Wolf Pack, Bob Crawford reports to Howlings that Pyatt has in fact returned, but it's unknown if he will play in the first game. He will be a game time decision.
Also watching from the sidelines for the Pack are wingers Justin Soryal, who’s been out since mid-January with a hand injury, and Tomas Zaborsky who suffered a season ending shoulder injury that required surgery.
The Pack will need solid contributions from their youngest players.
Brock McBride has been consistent and solid since joining the team at the end of March chipping in with four assists over the eight games he’s played in and has seemed comfortable in the role he’s been asked to play.
David Stich has played in four games assisting on two goals, but has looked like he’s struggling to find his game at this level. Perhaps the addition of Tomas Kundratek, who just signed an ATO with the Pack yesterday, and was a teammate of Stich’s on the Czech national team will help.
Paul Crowder has been good in his 11 games and has three assists.
For Worcester, the team is in pretty good shape health-wise. They did lose left wing Jamie McGinn to recall by San Jose, but Worcester enters the series having finished the regular season winners of eight of its final ten games.
In the season series against the Pack, center Tom Cavanagh has been almost unstoppable. In just six games, the Warwick, Rhode Island native has torched the Pack for five goals and helped out on four others (5-4-9). Meanwhile, defenseman Derek Joslin, who’s played in all eight contests between the two teams, has three goals and four assists (3-4-7) from the blue line. Then there is the always dangerous Riley Armstrong (3-3-6 in 7 games) and team captain Ryan Vesce (0-6-6 in eight games) and ex-Pack Cory Larose (2-1-3) to contend with.
Over the regular season, the Sharks saw Armstrong lead the way in goals scored with 25. However it was Vesce who led the team in scoring with 24 lamp lighters and 47 helpers for 71 points almost doubling their second leading point generator, Lukas Kasper who had 44 (17-27).
What can be the real deciding factor in this series are the team’s two netminders.
For Hartford, Matt Zaba has been stellar. In his two games against Worcester he’s only allowed a single goal and won both meetings. Zaba was clearly the Pack’s MVP over the second half of the season and is the main reason the Pack enter this series where they are. Zaba enters the series as the league’s seventh best netminder with a .920% and a 2.33GAA. His season record was an impressive 25-10-0 with two shutouts. One of those coming against the Sharks. Zaba is joined in the nets by Miika Wiikman. The Finnish netminder was last season’s number one between the pipes and his play expedited the departure of former first round pick AL Montoya. Wiikman finished strong at 5-2-0-1 in his last eight starts. Wiikman was solid and regaining confidence with Zaba down with a broken finger. His record was 2-3-1 against Worcester with a 3.13GAA.
On the Worcester side of the ice they are manned between the pipes by Thomas Greiss, who was 3-3-0 with a 2.49GAA vs the Pack this season. They also have Taylor Dakers, who gave up four goals and lost his only time in the net against the Pack this season.
Greiss enters the game having played in sixteen straight contests for the Sharks where he went 10-6-0 including winning seven of eight. He posted a 1.88GAA and a .931% with a shutout over the span. Greiss ranks 15th overall amongst netminders in the AHL with a 30-24-2 record, 1 shutout, a 2.47GAA and a .907%.
Breaking down the numbers:
The Pack were 2-2-0-0 at home and 2-1-0-1 in Worcester. Goal scoring wise it’s pretty even with the Pack having scored 23 to Worcester’s 22 and outplayed them on the power play 17.5% (7/40) to 15.2% (7/46). Both teams enter the series playing well. Hartford is 7-2-0-1 in their last te
n while the Sharks are 8-2-0-0.
On the road Worcester has struggled with an 18-20-1-1 record while the Pack have been solid at home posting a 25-13-0-2. Conversely the Pack are 21-14-3-2 on the road to Worcester’s 24-15-0-1 record at home. Both teams are solid at holding on to leads. Worcester is 21-3-0-1 when leading after one and 28-2-0-1 when ahead after two. The Pack are 24-6-0-1 and 28-1-1-1 when leading after one and two periods respectively. Hockey is a tough game to come from behind in. Neither team has exactly been the “Cardiac Kids” in that regard. Worcester has been 6-24-0-1 when trailing after one and 4-31-0-0 after two. The Pack meanwhile are 9-12-1-1 when losing after one and 5-20-1-2 after two. What can be gleaned from that is that Worcester has trailed 31 times coming out of the first and 35 coming out of the second. The Pack have only been behind 24 times coming out of the first 28 after two. In one goal games, which many playoff games are, Worcester was 20-14-1-2 and the Pack were 20-8-3-4.
MATCH-UPS:
FORWARDS:
Up front Worcester has some scoring power with Vesce (24g), Kaspar (17g) and Armstrong (25g) on the wings and Larose (19g), Cavanaugh (15g) and Steven Zaiewski (13g) in the middle.
For Hartford, they play a far more two way game, but have some real strong talent up front. Parenteau, if he can play, led the team in scoring prior to his injury and potted 29 goals. Second year pro Artem Anisimov won the team’s scoring title with 81 points in 80 games (37g, 44a). Then there’s Patrick Rissmiller, who played his college hockey at Holy Cross University in Worcester. The 6’4” 215 pounder from Belmont, Massachusetts spent six seasons (2002-08) in the San Jose organization before signing a three year free agent deal with the Rangers last summer. He should be hyped up to play in a playoff series against the organization that let him go and in front of his family who will certainly be there to watch. Rissmiller’s play improved dramatically down the stretch and totaled 14g and 40a on the season. Brodie Dupont was a workhorse all year and tallied 18g, 24a for 42 points. Captain Greg Moore has been surging of late and has 23g and 16a on the season. Dale Weise, Jordan Owens and Mike Ouellette have been very good all season long and recent addition, veteran Mark Bell has also been good.
The Pack are a “play-by-committee” type of a team and have more talent up front. If the Pack can stay out of the penalty box, and they have struggled to do that quite a bit of late, they have a decided edge talent wise.
EDGE: Wolf Pack
DEFENSE:
Worcester has some talent patrolling the blueline. Patrick Traverse is a solid defenseman. He contributed 9g and 33 helpers and led the team’s D in points with 42. The player the Pack will have to watch is Joslin who had 11g and 19a for 30 points and Demers who tallied 33 points on 2g and 29a. Brett Westgarth plays an intimidation game. The Pack cannot allow themselves to let him get into their heads and should concentrate their efforts in putting pucks in the net and not fists in his mouth.
The Wolf Pack have talent on the blueline that while good have not been great. Bobby Sanguinetti has been very solid offensively putting 6 in the net and helped out on 36 others. For much of the season he was in the double digits on the negative of the plus/minus but got it under that at minus-8 to finish the year. He did get a call-up to New York but did not play.
Corey Potter did get a couple of call-ups this season and scored his first NHL goal. he scored ten goals and had 22 helpers and had a plus-3 on the season. This might be Potter’s last season in the AHL as it’s likely he could be in NY with the Rangers next season.
Michael Sauer also got a call up to New York and looked good in his first game and was sent back to Hartford after his second. Sauer was clearly the most improved defenseman over the course of the season that saw him put his knee injury that took him out late last year. Sauer is physical and gaining confidence on the offensive side of the ice and could very well be a major difference maker in this season.
Also improving greatly is his line mate, David Urquhart. He is an offensive minded defenseman who due to injuries up front has played some time on left wing for the Pack. He’s strong physically and has speed and a very good shot from the point on the power play.
EDGE: Wolf Pack
GOALTENDING:
As discussed earlier, the Pack are FAR superior between the pipes. This one is a no brainer and should be the difference-maker in the series. If Zaba continues to play as he has over the second half this one is a no-brainer. If he struggles, Wiikman, for most other AHL teams, would be the number one guy and was for the Pack last season. Wiikman possesses the talent to carry the team all the way to the finals himself. The same could not be said about Dakers.
The only thing that can turn this series against the Pack, which is NOT a high scoring team, is if Greiss plays lights out goaltending.
EDGE: Wolf Pack
SPECIAL TEAMS:
Worcester was 20th overall on the power play and Hartford was 21st killing them off. The Pack power play is 13th and Worcester’s kill is 16th. The Pack have had a very hard time of late staying out of the penalty box and have struggled on the PK after making it into the top ten in the last month of the season. What could be a major turning point is the fact that the Pack have been scoring a ton of goals shorthanded. Greg Moore led the AHL with five shorthanded tallies, but Mike Ouellette and Jordan Owens have been outstanding all season long.
On the other side, without Parenteau in the lineup, the PP has been erratic at it’s best, as looks like it’s trying to find someone to move them forward. This is a big problem for Head Coach Ken Gernander heading into the tournament.
Again, the issue is going to be if the Pack can stay out of the penalty box. If they can’t it could be the reason they get an early exit.
EDGE: Even
COACHING:
No question about it this one is all about Ken Gernander. The sophomore head coach took a team that was in last place and floundering and turned them around to be a Division Champ for the first time in five years. While he did not receive the AHL award for head coach of the year honors he certainly deserved consideration for it. Roy Sommer is no slouch and also did a fine job this season.
EDGE: Wolf Pack
PREDICTION:
The big question mark in making this call will be if P.A. Parenteau is able to play and if Tommy Pyatt can come back and be in decent enough shape to contribute. If they can’t this will be a much closer series and affects any prediction. Even without the two of them, the Pack should win this series and advance. They are just a better team and playing with a lot of confidence. They can’t get lazy and take Worcester for granted. Gernander won’t let them. The big key will be if the Pack are playing shorthanded and it will mean more discipline in both zones. Whether that happens or not is anyone’s guess. But since we’re the one’s guessing, we think that Gernander will insure that that happens.
Here’s a dual prediction. The Pack are so solid between the pipes that even if Parenteau and Pyatt are unable to play the Pack will win this series. The onl
y question is in how many games. If the two are able to come back and contribute this one could be over quickly…say, five games. Conversely if they cannot go, the Sharks can make a series out of it and it will go seven. Ultimately with the home ice and goaltending advantage working for them, the Pack win and advance.
SCHEDULE:
Game 1 – Thu., Apr. 16 – Worcester at Hartford, 7:00
Game 2 – Sat., Apr. 18 – Worcester at Hartford, 7:00
Game 3 – Mon., Apr. 20 – Hartford at Worcester, 6:35
Game 4 – Wed., Apr. 22 – Hartford at Worcester, 6:35
*Game 5 – Thu., Apr. 23 – Worcester at Hartford, 7:00
*Game 6 – Sat., Apr. 25 – Hartford at Worcester, 7:05
*Game 7 – Mon., Apr. 27 – Worcester at Hartford, 7:00
* if necessary
Odds & Ends:
Congratulations to Former Pack and former Rangers first round picks, Hugh Jessiman and Al Montoya. Jessiman signed a two-way contract with Nashville. The fourth year pro from Darien, Connecticut had his top season of putting pucks in the net. The 6’6” 231 pounder netted twenty tallies and helped out on seven others. Getting a contract like this one should be the one that finally gets Jessiman some time in The Show and finally put to bed the criticism that has followed him that he is the only player from his draft class that has not played in the NHL.
For Al Montoya, who struggled so mightily with the Wolf Pack towards the end of his stay here and then was nothing short of awful in San Antonio (7-17-2 3.23GAA .885%), got his chance at the end of the season in Phoenix and made the most of it and looked sharp posting a 3-1-0 record with a 2.08GAA and .925%. Well that fine performance has led to Montoya being named to Team USA and will be between the pipes for the red, white and blue at the 73rd IIHF World Championship in Berne and Zurich-Kloten between April 24th and May 10th 2009.
Congratulations to two fine young men who also gave their all while playing for the Pack in Hartford.
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